Ginzburg, Boris (2025): About Icebergs and Abraham: The Strategic Partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel on Course for the Abraham Accords. In Caucasus Analytical Digest No.143. Online: https://css.ethz.ch/en/publications/cad/details.html?id=/n/o/1/4/no_143_azerbaijans_international_relatio

Abstract
Since the beginning of 2025, Azerbaijan has been repeatedly mentioned in the American and Israeli security discourse as a possible candidate state for the US-brokered “Abraham Accords”. This idea, however, seems counter-intuitive. In 2020, the “Abraham Accords” led to the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the two Arab Gulf states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan joined later). In the context of a growing threat from the Iran-led Shia axis in the region, the Abraham Accords also included a series of joint economic and security cooperation agreements between Israel and these Arab states. Yet, Azerbaijan is neither an Arab state nor does it lack diplomatic relations with Jerusalem. Critics often emphasize that this step has only a symbolic meaning. This analysis challenges this claim and simultaneously constitutes the first study to examine Baku’s motives behind this initiative, in particular. The main Azerbaijani motives can be summarized in five points: (1) a final termination of American financial restrictions against Azerbaijan, (2) the strengthening of its own mediation role in the region, (3) Azerbaijan’s emergence as a regional power in the so-called “Greater Middle East”, (4) securing a qualitative military and political edge over its Arab allies, and (5) the establishment of Azerbaijan as one of Washington’s most important security partners in the Muslim world.