Ukrainian Analytical Digest No. 11 looks at warfare and international relations in Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. The first two contributions by Esther Locher and Dominika Kunertova examine new developments in urban warfare and drone warfare respectively. The next two contributions, by Yuliya Kazdobina and Thomas Pritchard, analyse Ukraine’s interim security framework based on bilateral agreements and the use of nuclear strategy and narratives by Russia. Finally, Parker Watt describes Russian efforts at disinformation in American society.

Freed download:
https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/Ukraine_Analytical_Digest_011.pdf#page=1

Free subscription:
https://css.ethz.ch/en/publications/uad/newsletter-service-uad.html

***

Abstracts

Esther Locher
Cities under Siege: Understanding Urban Warfare in the Russian-Ukrainian War

This article examines the evolving dynamics of urban warfare in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. By providing an overview of previous Western urban warfare doctrine, it aims to assess what has changed and/ or stayed the same in the battles observed in Ukraine over the last three years. While there has been significant fighting in more rural areas as well, it stands out that military operations have consistently converged on urban areas. However, while it is clear that cities are a primary objective and target of Russia’s military, urban warfare in Ukraine does not necessarily align with the type of urban conflict Western military organizations have anticipated, or trained for. The urban battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war are marked by prolonged, highly destructive warfare – a trend likely to intensify as the conflict continues.

***

Dominika Kunertova
Learning the Right Lessons: How Ukraine Has Changed Drone Warfare

Russia’s war in Ukraine has undoubtedly become the single most important conflict for understanding how drone warfare may take shape in the future. This article zooms in on the fast-paced drone developments on the Ukrainian battlefield across platforms, functions, and operational domains. Most notably, repurposed hobbyist drones have demonstrated their tactical utility in high-intensity warfare by both providing a live-feed of the battlefield and becoming ammunition themselves. These developments have contributed to an improved cost-per-effect ratio of drone capabilities and an increasing relevance of the vertical dimension in land operations. Drones, however, are not a silver-bullet solution for achieving strategic victories. This article also highlights that the path to operational effectiveness is not as straightforward as the techno-optimists like to portray, examining the challenges related to the development, integration, and deployment of new uncrewed systems. Looking forward, research and development in artificial intelligence (AI) is promising major breakthroughs in autonomous drone operations, as well as command and control support. Finally, the Ukrainian battlefield shows that future warfare will most certainly involve multi-domain drone operations.

***

Yuliya Kazdobina
Building a Shaky Bridge to NATO: Ukraine and its Interim Security Framework

This article examines the interim security framework Ukraine and its partners are building to counter Russian aggression and move toward NATO membership. While legally non-binding and lacking specifics, the bilateral agreements create a framework for bilateral and multilateral security cooperation. Capability Coalitions aim to meet Ukraine’s equipment needs as resources allow. Though unlikely to ensure Ukraine’s near-term security alone, continued efforts are essential to building credible deterrence and fully integrating Ukraine into a collective security arrangement.

***

Thomas Pritchard
Nuclear Strategy and Narratives: Dissecting the Dangers of Kremlin Discourse on Nuclear Weapons

In this article, the narratives and actions the Kremlin has taken regarding nuclear weapons over the course of 2024 are highlighted and discussed in some detail. The aim in doing this is to highlight that they are attempting to use this to gain strategic and tactical advantages relative to their international adversaries, but there are also broader implications. To understand these implications, a theoretical framework which highlights how political articulations in international politics can establish hegemonic positions in a discourse, as well as structure all other thinking and discussion of an issue, is utilised. Through this, we can see that the position the Kremlin is pushing has the potential to restructure the foundation of international politics.

***

Parker Watt
The Increasing Vulnerability of American Society to Russian Disinformation Today

Russian disinformation is no new phenomenon. Its international distribution has been recognized extensively, particularly in light of recent US and European elections, as well as Russia’s broader goals in its unprovoked war of aggression on Ukraine. However, recent developments within domestic American politics make the United States particularly vulnerable to Russian disinformation. In light of US President Trump’s first known call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2025, it is important to understand how the Russian disinformation network can be used to exploit this vulnerability leading up to possible peace negotiations. This article examines Russia’s deployment of disinformation in the United States from the run-up to the 2024 presidential election through President Biden’s final Ukraine aid announcement in December 2024. In doing so, it seeks to explain how contemporary Russian disinformation adapts to the changing domestic contexts and effectively utilizes existing discourse to sow divisions in the American populace. It then examines how certain policy decisions of the Trump administration have made the new government more vulnerable to such disinformation. It is important for American and world leaders to understand how America might be particularly susceptible around negotiations; however, the deployment of Russian disinformation is a permanent fixture of Putin’s regime. Therefore, American and other world leaders would be wise to understand their own vulnerabilities to Russian influence no matter how and when negotiations end.

***

More information:
https://css.ethz.ch/en/publications/uad.html