Ginzburg, Boris (2026): The ‘Don’t Lose Lukashenko’ Approach: Kyiv’s (Non-)Strategic Ambiguity Towards the Belarusian Opposition. In PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 960 (Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs).

Abstract
After the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko provided logistical support to the Kremlin in its war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, one might have expected the Ukrainian government to seek closer cooperation with the Belarusian opposition in exile. However, even though both sides now seemingly shared a common enemy, closer cooperation failed to materialize. On the contrary, Kyiv has even avoided being associated with the Belarusian exiled opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The recent release of 123 Belarusian political prisoners by the Lukashenko regime on December 13, 2025, 114 of whom were exiled via Ukrainian territory, again demonstrates that a functioning communication channel between Kyiv and Minsk remains in place. Simultaneously, Kyiv seems to be signaling its readiness to extend its hand to the Belarusian dissidents.